Overnight update on tropical storm Emily:
A current radar loop of tropical storm Emily shows a persistent area of deep convection. However, based on the motion of the radar echoes, the center of circulation is on the western edge of these heavier thunderstorms. This shows that Emily is still not very well organized, but that the surface circulation is close to the area of thunderstorms, meaning Emily will hold her own or possibly strengthen slightly before landfall Wednesday evening in Hispaniola.
Emily is not producing an extremely expansive area of heavy thunderstorms, however the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola will make flash flooding likely Wednesday night through Thursday night there.
The latest computer model forecast tracks for Emily are in good agreement with my forecast track from earlier today, with a clustering just off the southeast coast. A curve east before the Florida or southeast coast is likely, but all interests in the southeastern US need to continue to monitor the progress of Emily.
Because Emily is expected to remain a minimal tropical storm with winds of 40MPH or better even after passing over Hispaniola, tropical storm warnings have been issued for the southeast Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos islands. Expect the rest of the Bahamas to be placed under tropical storm warnings tomorrow.
Full discussion/forecast in the morning.